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What do you think will be GPT-5's "hook"?
62
2.1ká¹€4359
2031
89%
No model picker
74%
Personalized to you, the user
68%
Trained on synthetic data
54%
Very large context window, or another way to give the model long-term memory
51%
Faster speed(smaller model, architecture improvements, mixture of experts keeping most parameters unused during inference, etc.)
47%
Designed to inference cheaper than GPT-4(price must be lower)
38%
Exact-query of training data or knowledge databases(similar to Google RETRO)
37%
Online learning of specialized agents(finetuning, PEFTs, etc.)
34%
Operates autonomously with instructions from you
32%
capable of online learning
28%
New Neural Network Architecture
24%
Seed option to create the question
22%
(Near) real-time update of training data (data delay is within 6 months and is kept updated)
21%
Audio Modality
21%
Acts autonomously
16%
Has a catchier name
1.2%
Video Modality

Add your predictions. I will not trade heavily (i may make small predictions with 1 mana for myself) because my subjective judgement might come into play.

Resolves YES to those that are more or less correct (resolves according to the spirit) or to 50% (if technically true but not in spirit) or to NO (if not true).

All predictions will be evaluated upon a release, if there ever is one.

Do not submit spam or irrelevant options, those will be N/A'd

Inspired by this tweet (by @Mira )

If no GPT-5 is released this decade, the market will be N/A'd. You can trade on whether that will happen here:

AI
OpenAI
GPT-5 Speculation
GPT-4 speculation
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á¹€1,000
to start trading!

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comprou á¹€10 NO

What happens when an account is deleted? Can a mod resolve the market?

comprou á¹€50 YES

@ChinmayTheMathGuy meaning 1 unified model that routes between submodels

@ChinmayTheMathGuy https://openai.com/index/gpt-5-system-card/

comprou á¹€75 YES

@ChinmayTheMathGuy

Both Mark Chen (interview with Matthew Berman) and Sam Altman (interview with Cleo Abram)

mentioned this. It's also in their model card.

comprou á¹€20 YES

This was showcased in the mrwhosetheboss video about GPT-5 (over 2M views in <1 day, by far most watched video about GPT-5) so I think it should resolve yes

comprou á¹€10 YES

What is google RETRO? Can’t find any mentions of it online

@mariopasquato @Mira @MiraBot

@mariopasquato https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.04426

WTF why do Google scientists not understand how big O notation works? I've seen people misuse big O notation like this in every day use but in a paper this is too much

reposted

reposting because the launch may be near

comprou á¹€70 NO

This market only applies to AIs called GPT-5, so this is technically impossible

Imagine ChatGPT but Google gave it all of your info

To clarify, this needs to be something significantly different. Something like Flash-attention that's just a faster version of transformers won't count. It doesn't necessarily need to not contain transformers, but it needs to be a bigger change than an improvement to a single aspect of the architecture or a better implementation

Resolves to whether the prediction was correct or whether it was a "hook" i.e. heavily advertised by OpenAI as its distinguishing feature, or notable in being different from other leading models?

@Mira To a hook.

@Mira

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