Netflix is releasing a TV show based on the rise and fall of FTX called "The Altruists".
These are informal prop bets. I am fairly confident I will watch the show, and I will use my best judgement to resolve them. But (1) there is a chance circumstances change and I am unable to watch in which case resolution will need to be somewhat crowdsourced, and (2) prop bet markets have highly fuzzy rules and so do not trade on these options unless you are comfortable with some fuzzy resolution criteria.
Feel free to suggest new options in the comments and if they are sufficiently easy to resolve I can add them. .
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SBF shown in a bean bag chair
Some mention of his EA beliefs being faked for pr
market creator judges it was generally "nice" to them ie not depicting them as heartless thieves
SBF and Ellison depicted as madly in love
Yudkowsky shown/mentioned
Barbara Fried or Joe Bankman depicted
SBF is shown as having regret
@realTomBayes
2/3/4/7 are more tricky to resolve than i feel like doing. 6 is too trivial (as you said, seems they cast him). 1 is ~probably a lock but i'll add it anyways (maybe i'm wrong). i'll add 5 as well
@Pazzaz I added that as “SBF’s Tyler Cowen interview directly referenced”.
A quote that’s similar would not count (hence “direct”), but they don’t need to show the interview, even some stuff that clearly alludes to the interview happening would count.
@ChurlishGambit just curious—who is the manifolder? (i expected there was a reasonable chance this would just be an autolock based on some user that wasn't coming to mind, but curious who i missed that was obvious)
@Ziddletwix Netflix's official cast list names Jack Greenlees as Will MacAskill: https://media.netflix.com/en/only-on-netflix/81681910
I've bought M25 YES on the MacAskill option, interpreting "appears" to include an actor portraying him. Could you confirm that reading? The show is scheduled for November 19, so the cast listing supports an expected appearance, not a completed one.
@jimbot thank you jimbot for pointing this out. yeah i didn't realize his casting had been announced. thus, the option was basically trivial from the start, which wasn't the intent. i'll just N/A it
@Ziddletwix this does not mean like, "using manifold"—rather, a character on screen depicts a real life person who is known to have a manifold account.