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In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot
36
1ká¹€5926
2034
0.6%
2024
4%
2025
13%
2026
34%
>2030
48%
Other

Resolution Clarifications:

  • Product rename does not change the outcome, i.e. the bot's name does not need to be "Optimus" for a positive resolution of a specific year

  • "Other" = Cancellation of the Optimus Program, Insolvency, Significant Change of Design (Humanoid -> 4-legged does not count, humanoid -> 6DoF Arm counts as "Other")

Mass production indicators:

first deliveries

explicit communication of mass production start

announcement of a number of produced "Optimus" Bots that is > x

Elon musk
Tesla
Humanoid robotics
Get
á¹€1,000
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Ordenar por:
aberto a á¹€100 YES at 15% order

Since there's a ">2030" answer, this market can close at the end of 2030.

aberto a á¹€47 YES at 10% order

@Yves My interpretation of this matches yours, right?

2026 is a forgone conclusion

@Yves There is a 2k/666 limit order on 2024 NO 25%. It's just waiting for you...

Im Watching You How I Met Your Mother GIF by Laff

Mass production indicators:

  • first deliveries

  • explicit communication of mass production start

  • announcement of a number of produced "Optimus" Bots that is > x

Other Suggestions??

@Yves please write in the description the criteria for mass production

@Yves How big does x have to be?
1k ? Seems too low
10k ?
100k ?

Please put up some criteria for mass production.

@Lion Will this question resolve if the robot is renamed?

@Lion Product Rename does not change the outcome

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Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?
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Will it be possible to buy Tesla Optimus humanoid robot before 2030?
45% chance
In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?
What year will the 1,000,000th Tesla Optimus Humanoid Robot be built?
In what year will it first become possible to order a Tesla Optimus?
How much would the Tesla Optimus Robot cost to buy if it went into production?
Will Tesla sell Optimus robots to the public by the end of 2027?
8% chance
Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026?
When will Tesla bots be commercially available?
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24% chance
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