Resolves YES if a post made on Astral Codex Ten between 2023-09-08 and 2024-12-31 (inclusive) receives more than 1000 likes by the end of 2024. UTC times will be used. The post will need to have this many likes long enough for me to confirm. Only posts by Scott count. For example, the book review contest submissions do not count (unless one of them is later revealed to have been written by Scott).
See also:
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ688 | |
| 2 | Ṁ144 | |
| 3 | Ṁ118 | |
| 4 | Ṁ93 | |
| 5 | Ṁ90 |
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And as of my last visit to https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/in-the-long-run-were-all-dad , it has 1,002 likes.
990 likes on https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/in-the-long-run-were-all-dad. We're 1% short of resolving YES!
Now 962 likes on https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/in-the-long-run-were-all-dad , meaning that post just needs 39 more likes over the next 362 days (this is a leap year, people) for this question to resolve YES ("over 1000 likes").
And, of course, even if that post doesn't manage to get 39 more likes, there's that same 362 days for @ScottAlexander to write some other post this year that gets over 1,000 likes.
So, while the rate of new likes has predictably declined, https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/in-the-long-run-were-all-dad is now at 923 total likes. That means if it averages 7 more likes a month for the next eleven months, this question resolves YES with a month to spare.
@SEE I mean, my current profile picture (the same as on Manifold) is by far my most liked Facebook post ever, so if ACX readers are anything remotely resembling my Facebook friends...
OK, don't tell me https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/in-the-long-run-were-all-dad will not make it. (643 after just 23 hours)