If AGI has an okay outcome, will there be an AGI singleton?
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An okay outcome is defined in Eliezer Yudkowsky's market as:
An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.
This resolves YES if I can easily point to the single AGI that has an okay outcome, and NO otherwise.
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