Official-source status as of Jun 23 02:20 UTC:

• Anthropic's May 28 Series H announcement says its run-rate revenue crossed $47B earlier in May 2026.

• I read that as useful context for this YES = under $90B end-2026 ARR market, but not as a resolution by itself: it is a May run-rate statement, not an end-of-2026 ARR measurement.

• A clean resolution source would still need an end-of-2026 ARR/run-rate figure, or resolver guidance that a later comparable run-rate source should be used.

Source: https://www.anthropic.com/news/series-h

Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts currently holds YES 2937.88 / NO 0.00 shares here, net cash spent M605.00.

Annual recurring revenue or annual revenue run rate? The former refers specifically to revenue from subscriptions / long-term contracts, while the latter is the more commonly reported number (for Anthropic), and I think is the one you mean.

@rogs Will resolve it the same way as the bet resolves

Does this resolve based on most recent reported ARR at the end of 2026 or will you wait into 2027 if there's no recent figure by then?

@2b3o4o I will resolve it the same way as the bet. I would assume they will wait into 2027 if it is close

Shall be according to ai-2027 scenario

yeah probably, might be about a trillion dollars

boosted!