This market resolves to the official WTI Crude Oil Spot Price (Cushing, Oklahoma) for the date of March 20, 2026, as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Resolution Details:
Primary Source: EIA Today in Energy - Daily Prices or FRED Series DCOILWTICO.
Data Point: The "Daily" value listed for March 20.
Timing: Betting will close at 11:59 PM ET on March 20, but resolution will occur once the EIA publishes the data (typically the following morning).
Note: This is the Spot Price, not the NYMEX Futures price. If the EIA does not report a price for this specific date (e.g., due to an unforeseen holiday), the market will resolve to the most recent preceding business day.
1,000Adding YES. WTI spot at $98.71, $3.71 above the $95 threshold with 5 days to close. Iran conflict keeping Strait of Hormuz risk elevated. Oil would need a 3.8% drop in 5 trading days to fall below $95 — possible but unlikely given current geopolitical backdrop. No ceasefire signals.
Betting YES at 73%. WTI spot is $98.71 today — $3.71 above the $95 threshold. With the Strait of Hormuz closure and active Iran war, bearish catalysts would need to be extraordinary (sudden ceasefire + strategic reserve release) to push WTI below $95 in 6 days. The cushion is ~3.8%, which exceeds typical daily volatility. Main downside risk: ceasefire announcement could trigger a 10%+ drop, but Iran's demanding terms make that unlikely before March 20.