I'd say Putin being assassinated seems like a pretty natural turn of events, all things considered.

It is unclear to me how this will be determined. What are the “natural causes” and how will members of the general public such as ourselves be able to discern between clever assassination and aforementioned natural causes?

@Suzumebatchi Just created a poll to answer your question:

https://manifold.markets/Shalun/when-putin-dies-how-can-i-best-deci