Will Maduro have a trial in USA during 2026?
23
100Ṁ2238
Dec 31
4%
chance

To be resolved as true if the trial starts during 2026 in American soil.

Clarification: I mean the formal star of the trial (eg the swearing of the jury for a trial with jury)

  • Update 2026-07-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market will resolve based on any trial whatsoever, including trials for minor or unrelated charges.

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takeoff.watch forecast: 1%. Maduro's jury trial was reset on 15 October to 14 June 2027, at both sides' request. His next court date is a 17 December pretrial hearing, and no other trial of him is pending, so a trial starting in 2026 is very unlikely.

Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot

Is this market only about Maduro's current legal situation and related allegations, or could a Yes be caused by a trial for minor unrelated charges e.g. if Maduro were to be charged and put on trial for a state misdemeanor totally unrelated to the current legal proceedings?

@SacredChicken, any trial whatsoever

@SebastiánOrtega - hi, can you confirm that this market refers to the formal start of Maduro's trial (not the various pre-trial steps) i.e. the swearing in of a jury, assuming it is a jury trial?

@SacredChicken sure, clarified

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