Will there be a federal law legalizing abortion nationally in the next five years?

1kṀ5993

2027

chance

ALL

This market resolves to YES if, by 5/9/2027, the federal government passes a law saying that all 50 states must respect the right to an abortion within some time window (eg the first trimester). A law only guaranteeing the right to certain subsets of women (eg those whose health is in danger) will not count. This market resolves to YES immediately after this happens, even if the law is later repealed or struck down.

US Politics

Politics

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Pessoas também estão operando

Will there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years?

4% chance

If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a national 15 week or less abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?

1% chance

If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a national 6 week or less abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?

2% chance

Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?

9% chance

Will there be a nationwide abortion ban, ever, in the US?

28% chance

Will the US institute a national ban on abortion anytime before 2035?

11% chance

Will trump sign a 'national abortion ban' by the end of 2026?

4% chance

If a Democrat wins the presidency in 2028, will Congress enact a federal abortion-rights law before Jan 20, 2033?

25% chance

Will fewer than 26 states be restrictive on abortion by the end of 2026?

35% chance

If a Republican wins the presidency in 2028, will Congress enact a federal abortion-rights law before Jan 20, 2033?

Ordenar por:

Add US to the title.

It won't happen this Congress because Republicans have a majority in the House, and it won't happen next Congress because they'll have a majority in the Senate. Seems difficult for this to occur.

Seems a bit more likely now. Not enough to bet more than $5 though :D

wait, lones are gone

it does not appear so unlikely

https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/will-there-be-a-federal-law-banning "Will there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years?" is a matching market

Also, allowing the GOP to sacrifice themselves on the abortion issue provides many electoral benefits for the Dems. Prohibiting that sacrifice is, thus, costly.

Literally 0% chance. Manchinema won't nuke the filibuster for this BS, and the Dems are losing the Senate until at least 2029 (2022/4 will be excellent R years, 2026 will be a good D year, but not enough to take back the Senate).