Will Iran shoot down a US military plane/helicopter by end of April?
49
100Ṁ1957May 1
34%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves based on trusted news sources.
Edge Cases and Clarifications (Additions post-creation will be clearly marked):
Has to be a manned aircraft.
Iranian proxy groups in Iran count as Iran.
If they're outside Iran (e.g., Hezbollah, etc.), they don't count
If the vehicle successfully lands (e.g., runway or motorway), it doesn't count, regardless of injuries/fatalities. The aircraft would need to sustain significant damage upon "landing"/crashing for it to count.
Only shootdowns occurring after question creation count.
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Edit: after question creation, oops
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