Manifold just launched a USDC prize drawing where you can pay mana for tickets (you also get a first free ticket): https://manifold.markets/prize
In the FAQ they say "We intend to keep running Prize Drawings and will share as much information as we can about our plans for future drawings". This market resolves YES if a second real-world money prize drawing with tickets purchasable in mana starts before the end of 2026 (even if it does not complete), and resolves NO at the end of 2026 otherwise. Charity lotteries do not count for this; there must be a real-world monetary prize claimable by users for themselves.
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I'm selling all my Yes shares for a profit but not buying any No shares.
The prize drawing has resulted in significantly LESS mana sunk than the charity drawing did. It's like 1/3 or something at this point.
Maybe they will do a charity one next and it will again beat the prize drawing and they will decide that yes, people really did like charity after all.
@Marnix Waiiiit a second my goofy ass somehow thought this was a second charity drawing. This changes my metrics