Will AI progress slow down before July 2027 due to an agreement to 'pace the frontier'?
10
1kṀ13082027
28%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves according to whether something like the scenario Dario describes here has come to pass, at least through mid-2027, in a way that seems like it has counter-factually decreased AI capabilities at that time relative to if it hadn't happened. I expect only Anthropic and OpenAI need to agree to this.
Still resolves YES if the agreement is not voluntary (e.g. the government imposes this upon the labs)
Resolves by a poll of Manifold users created within a week of the resolution time. The poll will have an "I don't know" option that causes the market to resolve N/A
https://darioamodei.com/post/we-must-pace-the-frontier#why-pace-
Esta pergunta Ă© gerenciada e resolvida pela Predita.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Ordenar por:
Pessoas também estão operando
Perguntas relacionadas
Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2027?
33% chance
Will the FRONTIER AI Act pass by July 2027?
17% chance
Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?
58% chance
Will the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027?
50% chance
In July 2027, which AI 2040 plan will I think we're on the path towards?
Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027?
22% chance
If the progress of AI experiences a slowdown before 2030, what might be the cause?
Will there be any public agreement on frontier AI between China and the US or American AI companies before 2028?
74% chance
How much full-speed AI R&D progress will OpenAI make in 2027?
8.7
Will OpenAI or Anthropic “Pace the Frontier” Before 2028?
73% chance