Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Nigel Farage is declared the winning candidate in the 2026 Clacton by-election.

This market will resolve to NO if:

• Any other candidate is declared the winner of the by-election.

• Nigel Farage does not stand as a candidate in the by-election.

The primary source of truth for the election outcome will be official results published by Tendring District Council or major UK news organizations (such as BBC News or ITV News).

If the by-election is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, the market will resolve to N/A.

Background

On July 7, 2026, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage announced his resignation as the Member of Parliament (MP) for Clacton to trigger a by-election. Farage’s resignation came amid intensifying scrutiny over unregistered donations, personal finances, and an ongoing investigation by the Parliament’s Standards Commissioner regarding a £5 million gift. Farage stated he would immediately run for re-election to let his constituents decide on his performance at the polls.

In response to his move, which critics have labeled a political stunt, the UK's major political parties—including Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, and the Green Party—announced they will boycott the by-election and not field candidates. As a result, Farage is expected to contest the seat against minor and novelty candidates (such as Count Binface). Reform UK has requested that the by-election be held on August 6, 2026.