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Will LOY-001 establish safety?
10
150Ṁ181
2028
81%
chance

Loyal, a company developing treatments for longevity in dogs, recently announced that they have "completed the technical effectiveness portion of their conditional approval for [their first drug candidate]".

Will they successfully establish safety of LOY-001 (according to the FDA)? Resolves NO if they fail for any reason, including, for example, running out of money before they complete their studies.

Science
Longevity
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Careful on which drug: the FDA's January 2026 target-animal-safety acceptance was for LOY-002 (the senior-dog pill), not LOY-001. LOY-001's accepted section so far is effectiveness (November 2023). Source: https://loyal.com/posts/loy-002-tas

One step closer to a dog longevity drug: What LOY-002’s safety milestone means to a practicing vet
The FDA recently accepted the Target Animal Safety (TAS) submission for LOY-002, our drug in development for senior dog lifespan extension. Our Director of Veterinary Medicine, Brennen McKenzie, explains what this milestone means for senior dogs and the people who care for them.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vHSkxmYYqW59sySqA/the-likely-first-longevity-drug-is-based-on-sketchy-science

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