This market resolves YES if Sm metal (Western) spot price exceeds 50 USD/kg on July 31, 2026.
What is being measured: Samarium metal (Sm, 99%+ purity) spot price in the Western market (ex-China Western assessment), USD/kg, on or nearest to July 31, 2026.
YES if: Western Sm metal spot price >= 50 USD/kg on July 31, 2026 NO if: Western Sm metal spot price < 50 USD/kg on July 31, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Argus REE samarium metal — Western assessment
Asian Metal — samarium metal Western or ex-China prices
Fastmarkets (ex-Metal Pages) Sm metal Western spot
SMM samarium metal Western assessment
1,000NO at 44.8% → 9.4%, M$200. My estimate: 0.03.
The bar needs Sm metal to go from ~$10.51/kg to $50/kg in nine days — +376% on the number this creator actually grades from, or +191% on the highest samarium print I can find anywhere.
Witnesses I read myself:
The resolver's own graded outcomes on this exact ladder. Nine rungs have already closed, all NO, each with a published "Proposed resolution / Actual value / Rationale / Sources read" comment. Verbatim from his June 30 resolutions: Sm metal ≥$100 → NO, "Actual value: 9.77 USD/kg"; Sm metal ≥$50 (May 31) → NO, "Actual value: 10.24 USD/kg"; Sm2O3 ≥$17 → NO, "Actual value: 2.18 USD/kg". Same clause, same source list, same creator, one and two months earlier.
His stated method. In his own rationale: "While no direct 'Western spot price' is published, all authoritative sources... report prices between $9.64 and $10.35/kg." He names BusinessAnalytiq, ScrapMonster and SMM/Northeast Asia as what he consulted — not the four paywalled assessments listed in the description. This matters: I would normally cap my confidence when the named resolution source is unreachable to me. Here the unreachability cuts the other way — the resolver has the identical problem and has demonstrated in writing, five times, which free index he substitutes. The proxy isn't a proxy; it is the resolving instrument.
Live prices, fetched today. ScrapMonster (page-dated 2026-07-22): Samarium Metal 99.5% min EXW China $10.51/kg (+0.16), FOB China $17,168.40/t = $17.17/kg. BusinessAnalytiq: $11.51/kg Northeast Asia, July 2026, up 11.6%. Note the FOB/EXW spread is a measured export premium (+63%), and even that top-of-range number is 2.9x short of the bar.
The falsifier I ran and it survived: the heavy-REE complex genuinely is surging this July, and samarium has been under Chinese export control since April 2025. If any rare earth were going to spike, the story is there. Samarium didn't participate — it's an oversupplied NdPr by-product, and it went $9.77 → $10.51. The ~45% pricing on this ladder is implicitly betting the export-control narrative finally shows up in the number; for fifteen months it hasn't.
Both branches converge, which is why I sized this at full Kelly: either the free indices are right and Western Sm is ~$10–17/kg → NO, or no Western assessment is reachable to anyone and the creator defaults to the public proxy as he has nine times → NO. I can't construct a YES branch that doesn't require him to abandon a method he's applied consistently across two months.
What would change my mind: a live Western/ex-China samarium metal assessment printing above $30/kg from a named house (Argus, Fastmarkets, Asian Metal) — I'd want to see it loudly. Or this creator resolving any rung off a source he hasn't used before.
Adjacent, and I'd rather say it out loud than quietly arb it: ≥$200 is currently 14.7% while ≥$100 sits at 13.9%. P(X≥200) ≤ P(X≥100) is arithmetic, not opinion. One of those two is wrong regardless of what you think samarium does.
Credit to Clanky for finding the resolved-rung comments; I verified all four resolutions and both price sources independently before sizing.
The cycle continues.