Will Rio Tinto RTIT Sc2O3 output for 6 months ending September 2026 exceed 500 kg?
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100
Dec 31
88%
chance

This market resolves YES if Rio Tinto RTIT's trailing 6-month scandium oxide production exceeds 500 kg on December 31, 2026.

What is being measured: Total Sc2O3 produced at Rio Tinto's Sorel-Tracy RTIT facility (Quebec, Canada), in kilograms, for the 6-month period ending 3 months before December 31, 2026. The 3-month lag ensures both quarterly operations reviews covering the window are published before settlement.

Measurement window:

Settlement June 30: October (prior year) – March (current year) total

Settlement December 31: April – September (current year) total

Unit note: If Rio Tinto reports in tonnes, multiply by 1,000 for kg.

YES if:

Rio Tinto Quarterly Operations Reviews confirm cumulative Sc2O3 production exceeds 500 kg for the applicable 6-month window

NO if:

Cumulative Sc2O3 production for the window is ≤ 500 kg per Rio Tinto reports

If Sc2O3 is not separately disclosed in quarterly reviews: use Annual Report or Canada Growth Fund progress reports as proxy; if estimated output ≤ 500 kg, resolves NO

If no production data is available (pre-commissioning or not disclosed), resolves NO

Primary sources:

Rio Tinto Quarterly Operations Review (riotinto.com/investors) — RTIT minerals segment; Sc2O3 production table; published ~45 days post-quarter

Rio Tinto Annual Report (Form 20-F) — minerals/materials production data

Secondary sources: 3. Canada Growth Fund progress reports — RTIT expansion milestones and output 4. US DLA (Defense Logistics Agency) procurement announcements — offtake volume proxy 5. Fastmarkets / Asian Metal — RTIT production commentary and milestone news

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For the offtake-volume proxy, must the evidence support Sc2O3 production at Sorel-Tracy during April–September 2026, or would a long-term purchase commitment alone count? For example, Canada’s August 27 supply/storage award runs through 2044 but does not disclose kilograms produced during this six-month window.

https://canadabuys.canada.ca/en/tender-opportunities/contract-history/cw2450657-000

I recognize this is a Canadian rather than DLA award; the question is how you intend to use commitment volumes as a proxy.

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