This market tracks PGM 5E+Au production at the facility level.
Facility: Valterra operations in South Africa
Basket type: PGM 5E+Au (contains platinum, palladium, rhodium, and other PGMs)
Coverage period: Trailing 12 months (TTM) ending 2026-12-31
Settlement delay: 2 months (observation date = March 1, 2027)
Baseline (2026): 252,000 ozt
Data source: Official company production disclosures and quarterly reports
Resolution Criteria
Resolve YES iff: Latest Delayed (2m) Trailing (12m) result for valterra_mototolo_pgm_5e_au_ttm_ozt as of March 1, 2027 is ≥ 252,000 ozt.
If PGM 5E+Au production ≥ 252,000 ozt, resolve YES. Otherwise NO.
1,000Mototolo is already producing above the required 252 koz level on an annual basis, and management appears willing to prioritize volumes at existing deep-level operations while the PGM basket price is rebounding. Barring a major safety, flooding, or power crisis specific to Mototolo, the market’s sub‑50% pricing looks too pessimistic relative to current production and guidance.
Mototolo is an established, operating shaft complex within a major listed PGM producer’s portfolio, so the bar for “any 5E+Au production in 2027” is relatively low. I’d view the market’s sub‑50% pricing as substantially underrating the inertia of existing South African PGM operations.