Market odds look slightly low given current guidance: Marikana is core to Sibanye’s SA PGM segment and is being invested in (K4, E3/E4, Saffy Deeps) rather than wound down, so the base case is continued 4E output at or near recent levels in 2027.

The Marikana PGM complex represents a critical test case for South African mining resilience amid sector-wide production challenges. While the LPPM's Russian exclusion drove palladium 11% higher [https://news.metal.com/newscontent/101800575], providing strong price incentives for South African producers, the country's mining production declined 9.6% in February according to Statistics South Africa [https://news.metal.com/newscontent/103298800]. Marikana operations must navigate labor dynamics, energy constraints, and operational challenges that have historically plagued South African PGM mines. The elevated palladium price environment may not be sufficient to offset structural headwinds facing the sector through 2027.