Eland is behaving like a typical deepening ramp‑up asset: slightly below guidance at times but steadily increasing output, and the latest 2026 production update strengthens the case that PGM concentrate will still be coming out of the mine by early 2027. The main risk to a YES resolution is not operational failure but a strategic curtailment if PGM prices weaken sharply and Northam opts to preserve cash.

Market pricing looks too conservative relative to the current ramp trajectory and lack of any flagged structural problems at Eland; I’d lean YES unless you have a strong thesis for extended disruptions in South African PGM operations or a deliberate slowdown by Northam.