There is arbitrage opportunities available here with what appears to be identical markets:

https://manifold.markets/resourceabet/will-the-next-president-die-while-i

On life table base rates this should be ~0.37 for Biden, ~0.27 for Trump, and Biden is currently trading at 0.48 🤔

https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

@prodict part of that probability mass should be eaten up by the chance of getting a debilitating condition and resigning before dying.

Does it count if the president has health problems, goes to the hospital for an extended period of time, is replaced by their VP, and then dies before the end of the term?

@ZaneMiller it should, imo.

@ZaneMiller I just got a notification that said "No one liked your comment"

@ZaneMiller