Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the official release date of "The Winds of Winter," the sixth novel in George R.R. Martin's "A Song of Ice and Fire" series. The release date will be determined based on announcements from reputable sources such as the author's official blog, publisher statements, or major news outlets. The date will correspond to the first official publication of the book in any format (e.g., hardcover, paperback, e-book) in any country.

Background

As of May 2025, "The Winds of Winter" remains unpublished. George R.R. Martin has been working on the novel since at least 2010, following the release of "A Dance with Dragons" in 2011. Over the years, Martin has provided various updates on his progress. In November 2023, he mentioned having written approximately 1,100 pages but still had "hundreds more pages to go." (businessinsider.com) In April 2025, Martin referred to the book as "the curse of my life," acknowledging its significant delay and ongoing work. (townandcountrymag.com)