Will the Supreme Court deem unconstitutional the Montana statewide ban on TikTok by 2026 year end?
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/tiktok-ban-in-montana-sets-off-first-amendment-legal-fight-5a06d701
If the SCOTUS makes a decision where the State of Montana has to meaningfully revert their recent ban on TikTok, this market resolves to YES. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
Close date: 31st December 2026
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Betting NO. The underlying lawsuit was jointly dismissed in federal district court on February 27, 2026, after TikTok completed a US joint venture deal that triggered the sunset clause in Montana's law. With the case dismissed by mutual agreement, there is no appeal path and no mechanism for SCOTUS to ever rule on this. The case simply does not exist anymore.
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