Resolution criteria
A market option will resolve to "Yes" if the market capitalization of SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) at the close of the first trading day following the expiration of the initial post-IPO lock-up period is within a specific range, and "No" otherwise.
Source of Truth: The market capitalization will be determined based on the official closing share price on the Nasdaq exchange on the day the lock-up period expires. This data can be verified via standard financial platforms such as Google Finance, Yahoo Finance, or the Nasdaq official website.
Lock-up Period: The resolution date is defined as the first market trading day after lock-up restrictions for the primary group of insiders/employees permanently end. If the lock-up expiration falls on a weekend or market holiday, it will resolve on the next business day.
Background
SpaceX has announced plans for an initial public offering (IPO) expected in mid-2026, with shares anticipated to trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol SPCX. Following standard IPO practices, SpaceX is expected to implement a lock-up period—typically lasting 90 to 180 days—during which early investors, executives, and employees are restricted from selling their shares.
While IPO valuations have been reported in the range of $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion, the actual market capitalization is subject to significant volatility and investor demand upon public listing. The lock-up expiration is a critical financial event, as it marks the first time a larger volume of insider shares may become eligible for sale, which can exert downward pressure on the stock price. Traders should monitor official SEC filings and company announcements for the exact lock-up duration and expiration date.
This description was generated by AI.
Update 2026-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The resolution will track the price when most employees/insiders are able to sell shares without restriction, i.e., the first trading day after the primary lock-up period for the largest group of insiders/employees expires.
Update 2026-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve based on the broad employee lock-up expiration (December 8, 2026), not Elon Musk's personal lock-up period (June 2027).
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@MaxA What's wrong with the current description? I intend this to track the price when most employees/insiders are able to sell shares without restriction.
@MaxA I have read the prospectus. My understanding is that the end of the lock up period could change in the future which is why I'm not defining a specific date. The point of this market is that I don't need to say when exactly it will happen just define the criteria for when this market will resolve.
@MaxA Yes, there are multiple lock up periods. This intends to resolve when all restrictions on stock sales are over. Aka they "permanently end" for the "primary group of insiders/employees."
@Kire_
SpaceX (SPCX) does not have a single, standard 180-day lock-up expiration. Instead, it uses an unusual, staggered tier-release schedule for its primary group of insiders and employees. The final broad employee lock-up ends on December 8, 2026, while CEO Elon Musk’s shares permanently remain restricted until mid-June 2027.
The multi-phase share-resale restriction schedule unfolds as follows: [1]
Late July / Early August 2026: First tranche (up to 20%) eligible to sell after Q2 2026 earnings are reported.
August - October 2026: Incremental percentages (between 7% and 28%) unlock at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days following the listing.
Late Fall 2026: A further 28% unlocks after Q3 2026 earnings.
December 8, 2026: The standard 180-day window concludes, leaving all remaining employee and early-investor shares fully eligible for sale.
June 12, 2027: The 366-day lock-up on Elon Musk’s holdings (and certain significant investors) permanently expires.
I can read that and still be left unsure whether "the primary group of insiders/employees" is "Elon Musk (and certain significant investors)" so June 12 2027 or "all remaining employee and early-investors" so Dec 8 2026 or something else.
This clarification
The resolution will track the price when most employees/insiders are able to sell shares without restriction, i.e., the first trading day after the primary lock-up period for the largest group of insiders/employees expires.
would seem to suggest it is the restrictions ending for the largest group so that seems like it is the restrictions ending on Dec 8 2026 so the market resolves based on price/Market cap at close on December 9th. Can you confirm (in order to be helpful to traders)?