Em altaUrgenteNovo
PolíticaEsportesCriptoFinançasGeopolíticaResultadosTecnologiaCulturaMundoEconomiaEleições
Will 1,3-butanediol significantly extend the lifespan of UM-HET3 mice tested by the NIA’s Interventions Testing Program? (Cohort 13: C2017)
10
1kṀ235
2032
32%
chance
...treatments that can decelerate the rate of aging are the only available path to significantly increase human lifespan going forward. Before drugs and treatments can be considered for larger clinical studies in humans, pilot trials in rodents must be performed as a necessary prerequisite. This is why the National Institute on Aging established the Interventions Testing Program which “is a multi-institutional study investigating treatments with the potential to extend lifespan and delay disease and dysfunction in mice”. So far it is the largest systematic effort to test potentially life-extending compounds in mice that has been performed. This is an attempt to give the biogerontology community, interested experts and laypeople an opportunity to predict outcomes of this important experiment. See also: http://biogerontolgy.blogspot.com/2022/02/a-prediction-market-for-nias-mouse.html
Science
Ancient Markets
Please Resolve
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Ordenar por:

Published answer for this one too: Strong et al. 2022, Aging Cell (doi 10.1111/acel.13724), the C2017 cohort paper. (R/S)-1,3-butanediol at 100,000 ppm from 6 months gave a 2% increase in female median lifespan (p = 0.04) only when the site with unusually short-lived controls was included; the two-site analysis showed 0%, there was no effect in males, and no change at the 90th percentile. The abstract's own wording is that BD "seemed to produce a small (2%) increase in females, but only if the analysis included data from the site with unusually short-lived controls", which reads as NO under a strict significance standard, unlike captopril in the same cohort (females +6%, p = 0.002; males +14%, p = 0.001, pooled). Every ITP row by compound, dose, sex and significance, with the dog-equivalent dose next to it (mine): https://w0lph.github.io/k9/why-dogs.html?v=2

Why the path to human longevity runs through dogs
Computed from the cited life tables and trials: a lifespan answer takes 4.6 years in dogs and 21 in people; dogs share our environment and diseases, lifespan has already been extended in dogs, and a regulator has accepted lifespan extension as an indication for dog drugs.
previuNO

Recommending "No".

Pessoas também estão operando

Will Captopril significantly extend the lifespan of UM-HET3 mice tested by the NIA’s Interventions Testing Program? (Cohort 13: C2017)
32% chance
Will a study performed by the Dog Aging Project show a statistically significant effect of rapamycin on lifespan extension between control groups and a treatment group?
8% chance
Will Aubrey de Grey's 2022 Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Project "succeed" in its aims of finding an intervention that increases both mean and maximum lifespan of mice by at least 12 months?
21% chance
Will a study show that the combination of parabiosis + genetic reprogramming will improve lifespan more than either intervention alone by 2035?
48% chance
Will a laboratory mouse reach 8 years of age by the end of 2030?
19% chance
By 2030, will any treatment be shown to increase human lifespan in a randomized controlled trial?
If a treatment is shown to increase human lifespan in a randomized controlled trial by 2030, what was the treatment?
Will the TRIAD trial report that rapamycin significantly extended lifespan in dogs by December 31, 2031?
45% chance
Which species will get the first regulator-approved drug with lifespan extension as the indication?
ITP: Which drug(s) will increase median lifespan the most in males by 2030?
© Predita Markets, Inc.•Termos de Uso•Privacidade