Will humanity wipe out AI x-risk before 2030?
11
130Ṁ2762030
19%
chance
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Resolves yes if:
1. there is a global ban on AI training runs larger than some threshold
OR
2. AI alignment is solved
OR
3. there is a large decline in humanity's capacity to make GPUs
Update 2026-09-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A large decline in humanity's capacity to make GPUs (Condition 3) will not count towards a YES resolution if it is caused by AI-induced human extinction.
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