Resolves YES if South Africa's platinum group metals (PGM) production for the full year 2025 declines by more than 5% compared to 2024, as reported by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) in their official mining production release, typically published in early 2026. This threshold is significant due to South Africa's critical role in the global PGM supply chain, particularly affecting palladium and platinum markets. A decline of this magnitude could tighten global supply and impact prices. The data will be sourced from Stats SA's annual mining production report. Note that this market will consider the total PGM output, not individual metals within the group.
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1,000Base-case industry forecasts still cluster around a low single‑digit decline for South African PGM output in 2025, but the skew from restructuring, deferred projects and strategic exits makes a >5% drop a meaningful tail that I’d price above even odds. This looks modestly underpriced at 40% if you think low PGM prices and cost pressure persist through 2025.