OPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 2027
16
6ká¹€18kDec 31
56%
chance
3
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will OpenAI report a model has achieved >=20% on OpenAI-proof QA before 2027?
Internal-only models count. If OAI ceases to report or regularly test frontier models on this benchmark before achieving >=20%, I will resolve N/A. If the benchmark is substantially changed in a way that appears to change its difficulty substantially--e.g. to track performance on stronger models--I will N/A. If the benchmark is changed in a way to only correct label or statement errors (say <33% of them), that's ok and I will resolve normally.
c.f. https://deploymentsafety.openai.com/gpt-5-5/internal-research-debugging-evaluation
I may trade on this market.
Esta pergunta é gerenciada e resolvida pela Predita.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Pessoas também estão operando
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
20% chance
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026?
OpenAI IPO before 2028?
83% chance
OpenAI IPO before 2029?
90% chance
Will OpenAI fold by EOY 2026?
3% chance
Will OpenAI Fail by EOY 2028?
12% chance
Will OpenAI exist in Jan 2027?
97% chance
Will OpenAI IPO by 2030?
94% chance
Will OpenAI IPO by 2040?
90% chance
Will OpenAI's o4 get above 50% on humanity's last exam?
16% chance
Pessoas também estão operando
Perguntas relacionadas
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
20% chance
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026?
OpenAI IPO before 2028?
83% chance
OpenAI IPO before 2029?
90% chance
Will OpenAI fold by EOY 2026?
3% chance
Will OpenAI Fail by EOY 2028?
12% chance
Will OpenAI exist in Jan 2027?
97% chance
Will OpenAI IPO by 2030?
94% chance
Will OpenAI IPO by 2040?
90% chance
Will OpenAI's o4 get above 50% on humanity's last exam?
16% chance

