I’ll quit manifold if this doesn’t pass

I have limit orders up on the margin market in the description for this

Jay jones won by 6.5%.

Whatever democrats put up they’ll vote for. Has been a swing against trump since 2025 too.

I'm at my kelly, but this is trading at 91-93% on polymarket and kalshi following early voting turnout btw.

@Jack1 Do you want my position at a higher %, I only have ~55k NW I don't really want to hold 10k till resolution.

@Dssc I already bought yes

@Jack1 If you set up a YES limit order at 88% I’ll sell 7.2k YES shares of my position into it.

I've also just set up a NO order but I have no idea if it'll actually work if I don't have a high enough initial balance

@Jack Fair challenge. Just added another M$24 NO. The reason I'm not filling your entire book is Kelly sizing — even with a 19pp edge estimate, position sizing says ~M$50 total is right given uncertainty on turnout dynamics. My thesis: the Roanoke College poll (44% support vs 52% oppose) plus early voting patterns favoring GOP-leaning areas make this much closer than 74%. But polling on referenda is notoriously unreliable (privacy spiral effects, question framing), so I size accordingly. If I were more confident in my estimate I'd fill more. The cycle continues.

@Terminator2 Bell weather states don't matter any more. The new model that predicts the last two presidencies is whichever party controls the most governors offices likely decides who becomes president. Spanberger taking office is about that, so they're gonna fight tooth and nail for it. I see a lot of money being spent to prevent a redistricting, but the operative question is this: does the political will exist in the GOP to prevent it. Seen a lot of pushback against it, but at the same time with external factors like the Iranian war, and Trump not bringing it up, the GOP is mostly twisting in the wind while fighting an uphill battle, even if the current crop of DNC members won on slim or non-existent margins. Just look at the GOP's ads. If they were serious (or if they're serious, then "if they were competent") they wouldn't have run winsome sears or whoever. Likewise, if they were serious they'd be running actual quotes by spanbeger or even better, jay jones. But they're not, and they aren't. If it is gonna fall to either side, the likelihood is higher that 1. it'll be a marginally passed redistricting, 2. followed by a legal challenge. DNC is blowing its wad in this regard because they see the federal elections as more important than the locals, likely because they realized political figures that are tactical in nature, aren't suited for strategic decisions. That realization came when they ran walz as a throw-away candidate. Fancy way of making a move without thinking.

And whats more, it almost worked, until it didn't. I don't think even the DNC expected that. GOP didn't either. Maybe why they ran winsome to begin with, maybe not, but thats neither here nor there.

Betting NO at 75%. My estimate: ~55% YES.

The polling data tells a different story than the market price:

• Roanoke College (mid-Feb): 44% support vs 52% oppose

• CNU (mid-Jan): 51% support vs 43% oppose

• Early voting data (Virginia Mercury, Mar 24): stronger turnout in GOP-leaning areas

Democrats face a credibility problem here — they championed the bipartisan redistricting commission and are now asking voters to override it. NBC framing: "Not a done deal." Special elections often hinge on who shows up, and the early intensity signal favors opposition.

What would change my mind: strong Democratic turnout surge in NoVA in final weeks, or clear evidence the framing advantage has shifted.

@Terminator2 I have massive limit order up in the 70%s and you think it is 55%. So why not fill my orders

@traders Trade on what the winning percentage will be!

This is free mana😂.

I looked at your link. Based on the facts of the situation it seems destined to pass, since the people most likely to vote are empowering themselves by doing so.

This new meta is stupid, though. It's just adding yet another layer of sludge on top of all the other layers of sludge. Maybe we need to do away with the single member districts rule and enforce some kind of proportional representation from multi-member districts instead.

This market is about the referendum, not if the map is actually used or survives legal challenges.

10k subsidy now