Conditional on at least 3 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive? | Axel

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Conditional on at least 3 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?

32

1kṀ1545

2100

77%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The condition is met if we ever cross the threshold, even if global temperatures are later brought below it. The resolution criterion is met if world population ever dips below 1 billion for any length of time before 2100.

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Although Centigrade is customary it might be good to state the scale.

3 degrees of warming since what baseline date?

previuYES

@GooglyEyes Whatever date people usually use when talking about these things

previuNO

@IsaacKing So preindustrial temperatures?

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Conditional on at least 2 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?

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