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On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark
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Dec 31
91%
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Tracking external bet: https://www.isattentionallyouneed.com/

This will resolve according to that site, whatever the conditions and caveats they have agreed on.

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Is mamba-trwnsformer hybrid transformer like? Falcon H1 is an example of such architecture.

@ProjectVictory does it use some kind of attention mechanism?

What constitutes Transformer-like?

Is it all, or some, of these?

  • Token inputs, token outputs

  • Positional encoding

  • (MH QKV SDPA -> MLP) layers

  • Residual connections

comprou Ṁ50 NO

https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.00663

Titans: Learning to Memorize at Test Time
Abstract page for arXiv paper 2501.00663: Titans: Learning to Memorize at Test Time

@JaundicedBaboon Let's see if it can leave the academia limbo where the Mamba's got stuck...

https://x.com/_philschmid/status/1846452029582959012

@MalachiteEagle Transformers, yes. Attention, not really:

followed by two shared attention blocks.

https://blog.rwkv.com/p/eagle-7b-soaring-past-transformers

It even links the wager page in its bragging points:

All while being an “Attention-Free Transformer”

I thought this wager was made today haha

Does this strictly resolve to the outcome of the bet?

@FranekZak Yep. Whatever details they come up with are in.

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63% chance
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Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?
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Which AI company will release the most impactful new model before September 30, 2026?
In Jan 2027, it will be standard practise for non-AI-building tech companies to finetune and train their own models
10% chance
Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026?
27% chance
When will a non-Transformer model become the top open source LLM?
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