Will there be any Congressional Special Election flips in the 119th Congress?

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Nov 3

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This will resolve YES if there are any special elections where the incumbent party loses a seat between the swearing in of the 119th Congress and the 2026 General Election.

This will not include any special elections held concurrently with general elections in 2026. In the case a representative or senator leaves their party and is an independent, the incumbent party will be defined as the last party which such representative caucused with in congress.

This last occurred following George Santos's (R) expulsion in the 118th Congress as Tom Suozzi (D) won the special election held for New York's 3rd Congressional District. The last session of congress without any special election flips was the 144th Congress (2015-2017).

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The next scheduled special election will be in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District on December 2, 2025, following Representative Mark Green (R)'s resignation on July 20, 2025. The district is heavily Republican, Green won re-election by just over 20 points in 2024.

The next scheduled special election will be in Arizona's 7th Congressional District on September 23, 2025, following Representative Raul Grijalva (D)'s death on March 13, 2025. The district is overwhelmingly Democratic, Grijalva won re-election by nearly 30 points in 2024.

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The first two special elections of the 119th Congress have been scheduled, both for April 1st, 2025. They will be held in Florida's 1st and 6th congressional districts, both districts with Republican incumbents that voted for Trump by >30 points.