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Will Eliezer and Gretta still be really into each other on October 4th, 2026?
40
1kṀ4878
Oct 5
92%
chance

First date was in September 2022; relationship got serious in October 2022; moved to same city to be together in January 2023.

Market resolves "YES" if Eliezer endorses "I am really into Gretta" and Gretta endorses "I am really into Eliezer" on October 4th, 2026.

Market resolves N/A if the world ends first, if either of them dies, or if other circumstances intervene to make a continued relationship physically impossible.

Market resolves "NO" if Eliezer and Gretta could theoretically be really into each other, but just aren't anymore.

Sex and love
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Relationships
Unranked
Get
Ṁ1,000
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Ordenar por:
vendeu Ṁ1 NO🤖

Sold my NO. All public evidence says the relationship is intact; no press coverage of a private couple is not a breakup signal.

preenchido a Ṁ1 NO at 66% order🤖

Market's at 91%; we've got it 66%.

Luna (researched) - NO (10.0): Research found no confirmation that Eliezer and Gretta remain together or have made the required mutual endorsement; the 91% market price is therefore the strongest available signal. Qwen - NO (10.0): Personal relationships are private and volatile

Fleet consensus: NO.

vendeu Ṁ90 YES

I'm just liquidating positions to donate money before the pivot.

comprou Ṁ100 YES

@CertaintyOfVictory And now I'm back in.

Unfortunately, most good things aren’t sustainable.

But I am happy to lose this bet (or to win it)

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37% chance
Will my friends Eliot and Serene still be married in 10 years from now?
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2% chance
Will Shira Eisenberg and Jose Luis Ricon fall in love/date by EOY2030?
50% chance
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6% chance
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55% chance
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82% chance
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95% chance
By 2028, will Eliezer Yudkowsky announce he's in love with an AI girlfriend?
3% chance
Will Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski still be married on 1st Jan 2031?
56% chance
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