Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028? | Axel

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Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?

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2028

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Two questions:

How do you resolve this bet? How do you define the costs?
What is the difference with this seemingly identical bet? https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-llm-training-costs-fall-100x-b-4303c981c158

@ErwinRossen Agreed that it’s not clear enough as is. If LLMs get 100x easier to train but the $/FLOP doesn’t change, does this resolve YES or NO? If the latter, then need to take a specific model and place a $ value on training it with a fixed recipe. If the former, then need to specify a benchmark score that needs to be reached.

previuYES

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Pessoas também estão operando

Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?

Will LLM training costs fall 1,000x by 2028?

Will LLM training costs fall 300x by 2028?

Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?

Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?

How soon will Private investment in LLMs be lower than it was in 2024Q1? (from 01.01 to 31.3 of 2024)

Perguntas relacionadas

Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?

Will LLM training costs fall 1,000x by 2028?

Will LLM training costs fall 300x by 2028?

Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?

Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?

How soon will Private investment in LLMs be lower than it was in 2024Q1? (from 01.01 to 31.3 of 2024)

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