The definition of major conjecture for the purposes of this market is one of the 129 "open problems" in this Wikipedia article as of 1 August 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conjectures
If a valid proof found by an AI is posted, then all years after the posting date will resolve YES.
The proof has to be accepted by a majority of the mathematical community (this market will stay open for a significant amount of time after a claimed proof to allow for disputes to arise).
It does not count if the problem was solved by a human beforehand.
If the proof was a human-AI collaboration, that is likely not sufficient for a YES-resolution, unless an overwhelming amount of the work (>90%) was done by the AI. If the AI produces an essentially complete proof, but humans reformulate the proof into easier-to-read prose, that would be sufficient.
Traditional AI like SAT-solvers/SMT-solvers count as AIs for the purposes of this market, but any problem translation or tinkering with these tools count as human work (if performed by humans). I will likely not count problems that only involve such tools, since there is usually still a lot of human work needed for such proofs (e.g. proofs of the empty hexagon number or the pythagorean triple coloring problem).
A few weeks after the start of a year, if I haven't found a proof claim and none has been posted in the comments, that year will resolve NO.
(Edit Mar 2026) If a problem has multiple parts or multiple versions, then all parts or the strongest version has to be proven for the purposes of this market.
(Edit Mar 2026) If the proof essentially uses a human-written article, preprint, blog post or similar that is less than 3 months old, I might categorize that as a human-AI collaboration at my disgression. Citing any older works will not count as a collaboration.
I will not bet on this market
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@DottedCalculator Yes, this disproof is sufficient.
Per the resolution criteria I will wait a week with resolving, in case someone shows up making a compelling point that this is not actually a counterexample (I think this is highly unlikely to happen).
For future record, the 129 conjectures that count are the following.
1/3â2/3 conjecture, abc conjecture, AgohâGiuga conjecture, Agrawal's conjecture, AndrewsâCurtis conjecture, Andrica's conjecture, Artin conjecture (L-functions), Artin's conjecture on primitive roots, BatemanâHorn conjecture, BaumâConnes conjecture, Beal's conjecture, Beilinson conjecture, BerryâTabor conjecture, Big-line-big-clique conjecture, Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture, BirchâTate conjecture, Birkhoff conjecture, BlochâBeilinson conjectures, BlochâKato conjecture, BochnerâRiesz conjecture, BombieriâLang conjecture, Borel conjecture, Bost conjecture, Brennan conjecture, Brocard's conjecture, BrumerâStark conjecture, Bunyakovsky conjecture, CarathĂ©odory conjecture, Carmichael totient conjecture, Casas-Alvero conjecture, CatalanâDickson conjecture on aliquot sequences, Catalan's Mersenne conjecture, CherlinâZilber conjecture, Chowla conjecture, Collatz conjecture, CramĂ©r's conjecture, Conway's thrackle conjecture, Deligne conjecture, Dittert conjecture, EilenbergâGanea conjecture, ElliottâHalberstam conjecture, ErdĆsâFaberâLovĂĄsz conjecture, ErdĆsâGyĂĄrfĂĄs conjecture, ErdĆsâStraus conjecture, FarrellâJones conjecture, Filling area conjecture, Firoozbakht's conjecture, Fortune's conjecture, Four exponentials conjecture, Frankl conjecture, Gauss circle problem, GilbertâPollack conjecture on the Steiner ratio of the Euclidean plane, Gilbreath conjecture, Goldbach's conjecture, Gold partition conjecture, GoldbergâSeymour conjecture, Goormaghtigh conjecture, Green's conjecture, Grimm's conjecture, GrothendieckâKatz p-curvature conjecture, H conjecture, Hadamard conjecture, HerzogâSchönheim conjecture, HilbertâSmith conjecture, Hodge conjecture, Homological conjectures in commutative algebra, Hopf conjectures, IbragimovâIosifescu conjecture for Ï-mixing sequences, Invariant subspace problem, Jacobian conjecture, Jacobson's conjecture, Kaplansky conjectures, KeatingâSnaith conjecture, Köthe conjecture, KungâTraub conjecture, Legendre's conjecture, Lemoine's conjecture, LenstraâPomeranceâWagstaff conjecture, Leopoldt's conjecture, List coloring conjecture, Littlewood conjecture, LovĂĄsz conjecture, MNOP conjecture, Manin conjecture, Marshall Hall's conjecture, Mazur's conjectures, Montgomery's pair correlation conjecture, n conjecture, New Mersenne conjecture, Novikov conjecture, Oppermann's conjecture, Petersen coloring conjecture, PierceâBirkhoff conjecture, Pillai's conjecture, De Polignac's conjecture, Quantum PCP conjecture, quantum unique ergodicity conjecture, Reconstruction conjecture, Riemann hypothesis, RingelâKotzig conjecture, Rudin's conjecture, Sarnak conjecture, SatoâTate conjecture, Schanuel's conjecture, Schinzel's hypothesis H, Scholz conjecture, Second HardyâLittlewood conjecture, Selfridge's conjecture, Sendov's conjecture, Serre's multiplicity conjectures, Singmaster's conjecture, Standard conjectures on algebraic cycles, Tate conjecture, Toeplitz' conjecture, Tuza's conjecture, Twin prime conjecture, Ulam's packing conjecture, Unicity conjecture for Markov numbers, Uniformity conjecture, Unique games conjecture, Vandiver's conjecture, Virasoro conjecture, Vizing's conjecture, Vojta's conjecture, Waring's conjecture, Weight monodromy conjecture, Weinstein conjecture, Whitehead conjecture, Zauner's conjecture