I'm cashing out of Manifold so no trade, but: this is significantly overpriced. Before negotiations can even start, a framework has to be decided which allows Ukraine to join as quick as possible without making the candidates that have been negotiating for 10+ years, like Montenegro, feel Ukraine "skipped the queue". Something will be agreed upon, but it will take time. Maybe it'll happen at the European Council in June, but I don't think that's certain. And then even if 5.5 years is somehow enough to open all 33 negotiating chapters, close them, sign the treaty and have everyone ratify it, there is still the chance the joining date is one day after the market closes.