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Will S&P 500 increase in 2026?

69% chance

S&P 500 up 100% in 2026?

2% chance

Will the S&P 500 increase in at least 3 of the 4 quarters of 2026?

48% chance

Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 10% in any quarter of 2026?

27% chance

Will S&P 500 increase in 2027? (next year)

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S&P 500 is down about 4.81% in the first quarter, maybe plus or minus a little depending exactly where you set your markers
But in any case ... it is down and this can be resolved 'NO'

comprou Ṁ799 NO

31 Dec 2024 5881.63
31 Mar 2025 5611.85
Resolves no @Ernie

@ChristopherRandles wait, this one is about 2026, right? so we don't know any results yet. Was there another which implies this has a different definition of it than we take the four quarters of 2026 and the result is based on just those?