What will be the first year Tadej Pogacar does NOT start the Tour de France?
17
590Ṁ5187
2034
0.7%
2024
0.9%
2025
0.9%
2026
9%
2027
32%
2028
25%
2029
14%
2030
10%
2031
4%
2032
3%
2033 or later

Resolves Yes to the first calendar year where Tadej Pogacar does not start the first stage (or prologue) of the Tour de France.

If he appears on the startlist but does not actually start the stage, that is probably a DNS. If he appears on the startlist, starts the first stage, and quits before it is over, that is probably NOT a DNS.

If the Tour de France is not held in any season, I am going to N/A this question because that is simply not what I am interested in. I don't want anyone to need to calculate "The TDF stops existing" into their valuations. So just assume the TDF happens every year.

If he does not start due to injury, season plan, etc., those are all expected and would resolve this Yes.

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I was thinking about this, I suppose the theory here is that he does only Giro or no GT and focuses purely on Olympics as his summer season goal?

@RedzoneITG IDK how important "7 wins" is to him but if he wants to get either 7 or 8 then he kinda can't skip any until he gets there IMO.

If he's gonna hit 6, have a kid, and just work on Roubaix for several years, then 2028 seems totally reasonable.

@Eliza Also it's just kind of amazing that he does NOT already have 6 and going for 7th right now. Craaaaaaazy that he got beaten twice.

@Gabrielle 2024 and 2025 are safe to put 1% orders on.

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