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Rate your ability to predict the future on a scale from 1 (worst) to 5 (best)
31
Dec 31
1 - not good
2
3
4
5 - very good
See results

You define the scale beyond that. You can compare to your peers on Manifold, people in general, your own expectations, I don't care. Vibes are okay.

Comment if you have more to say.

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predictor is a 5 and he should vote in this

@Predictor

I'm bad at predicting the future, but I know how to set limit orders on volatile markets!

@Quroe that's the spirit!

@Eliza I feel like we're going to get some interesting results for this poll.

It depends how much effort I put into it

I've learned Bayes theorem and other forecasting methods, I just don't use them when I vibe-gamble on Manifold

@realDonaldTrump Would you like to use Bayes on my beans markets? I think there are some arbitrage opportunities between the low and high resolution pages.

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