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In 2030, which AI paper will have the most citations?
17
1.1kṀ437
2030
33%
Attention is all you need
58%
Other
9%
Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition

Resolves to the option with the highest total (aka cumulative) number of citations on 1/1/2030 according to google scholar.

Papers must be about new AI techniques. Not other topics like applications or history. Meta-Analyses don't count either.

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comprou Ṁ10 YES

Is this citations during 2030 or cumulative evaluated at 12/31/2030 (or 1/1/2030)?

@Mactuary it's the cumulative number of citations on 1/1/2030 (which is the market close date)

Attention is all you need has 120k citations on google scholar

yea, but resnet has 200k

Dang!

comprou Ṁ1 YES

you did not know?

Nah I'm not actually that across the literature. Hence the market!

it's actually a great thing to bet on, that if attention will have more citations than resnet in 2030

Pessoas também estão operando

Which 2024 AI paper will have the most citations in 2030?
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2030?
83% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?
56% chance
Which MATH-AI 23 works will have >50 Google Scholar citations by end of 2026?
Who will be the most cited ML researcher alive in 2040?
Will a paper fully created by AI be accepted into Nature by 2030?
57% chance
Will AI surpass humans in conducting scientific research by 2030?
31% chance
will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
77% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?
72% chance
What will be the top-3 AI tools in 2040?
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