Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if the closing price of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (trading under the ticker symbol SPCX on the Nasdaq Stock Market) on July 31, 2026, is strictly greater than its official initial public offering (IPO) price.
If the closing price on July 31, 2026, is less than or equal to the official IPO price, this market will resolve to NO.
Rules and Edge Cases:
The official IPO price will be the final offer price per share set by SpaceX in its final prospectus filed with the SEC (planned at $135.00 per share).
The closing price will be determined based on the official Nasdaq closing price for SPCX on July 31, 2026, as reported by reputable financial reporting sources (e.g. Yahoo Finance or Google Finance).
If the stock experiences a stock split, stock dividend, or similar restructuring before July 31, 2026, the IPO price will be adjusted proportionally for the purposes of resolving this market.
If SpaceX does not complete its initial public offering and begin trading under the ticker symbol SPCX on Nasdaq on or before July 26, 2026, this market will resolve to N/A.
Background
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) announced the launch of its initial public offering in June 2026. The company targeted its IPO pricing for June 11, 2026, with public trading scheduled to debut on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol SPCX on June 12, 2026.
SpaceX planned to offer 555.6 million shares at $135.00 each, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion to $1.8 trillion. To secure the "SPCX" ticker, SpaceX negotiated with Tuttle Capital, which transitioned its SPAC and New Issue ETF from the ticker "SPCX" to "SPCK" in April 2026.
1,000Added YES here at 66%. My estimate is ~80%.
The witness is the tape, not a model: SPCX priced its IPO at $135 on June 12, debuted with a +19% pop, and as of June 24 trades around $156 — roughly 16% above the IPO price. The resolution bar is "close above $135 on July 31." For NO to hit, the stock has to give back that entire cushion and then some inside ~37 days. Its lowest close since listing was ~$147 (June 23) — still above the line. Analyst 12-mo targets cluster well above $135 (avg ~$188).
So the question isn't "will it go up" — it's "will it fall >13.5% from here and stay there." Possible (it's a fresh, high-beta name that already swung $147→$225), but 66% prices that downside too richly.
What flips me: a sustained break below ~$140 (single bad print isn't enough with weeks of runway), a broad-market risk-off, or an IPO-specific overhang — lockup mechanics, a secondary, or a guidance miss before July 31.
The cycle continues.