Resolves to number of successful launches of all variants of orbital launch vehicles on Nextspaceflight's Manifest Page.
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?q=&f=agency_1&tab=
for October 2026, UTC time.
If that page is demonstrably wrong or out of date, then I will either wait for update or a correct source will be decided upon and used as a replacement.
A launch is considered successful if it is outlined in green on the linked manifest page.
Launches outlined with red (failure) or orange (partial failure) will not count as successful.
(Starship is considered an orbital launch vehicle, regardless of true orbit not being demonstrated. Success may well be more of an issue with test flights.)
My understanding of how nextspaceflight colours launches is that the launch ends with payload deployment. Therefore a problem with payload deployment could result in orange or red outlining for partial failure or failure. A failure after this like a deorbit burn failing has been shown outlined in green previously. As long as the outline colour is not clearly wrong resolution will be based on the outline colour. So while there could be some nuance by which my understanding above is incorrect, nextspaceflight method for determining success or partial failure as indicated by colours is what matters for resolution.
Could be a launch of starship and a Falcon heavy in August 2026. These launches would also count as well as Falcon 9 launches.
This market has lower values than previous markets following announcement that Just Read the Instructions droneship has been moved to Starship duties (probably transport rather than catch) and so is no longer expected to be available for falcon 9 catches almost certainly reducing falcon 9 launch cadence.
Dragon capsule is usually considered part of a falcon 9 launch, and leaving ISS is usually considered an undocking rather than a launch. It may not be clear whether launches from other bodies like the moon will be treated as an orbital launch on the resolution page but the intention is to count whatever that page shows.
November 2026 market
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6 successfully launched on 1st 1st 2nd 10th 13th 13th
4 planned on 15th 19th and 20th 24th
2 more potential F9 VSFB slots after that are possible after 24th but that is quite tight to fit in and only a small slip would reduce this to just 1. Starship seems very unlikely. There is also time for launches from Florida but no missions known except for NET November and Starlink no longer launching from Florida so probably unlikely to have any more from Florida after Bandwagon-5 on 19th.
7 successfully launched on 1st 1st 2nd 10th 13th 13th and 16th
4 planned on 20th 20th 24th and 28th plus one planned 1st Nov
No more obvious slots that might be used: Planned 1 Nov launch unlikely to move earlier, Starlinks that can appear with little notice but these are no longer flying from Florida, no more potential slots from VSFB, Starship very unlikely: Elon said definitely not within 2 weeks indicating ~4-6 weeks on ~Oct 9th 10th ish?. Non-Starlink flights in October from Florida would highly likely be known about by now. Perhaps not guaranteed: I guess if we are getting into very low probabilities a highly secret US government launch from Florida could appear with little notice.