Resolves YES if the FOMC announces any rate cut at its April 28-29, 2026 meeting. Resolves NO if rates are held steady or raised.
The Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75% at the March 18 meeting. The median FOMC projection is for one cut in 2026. Futures pricing suggests a cut is almost entirely priced out for April, with easing not expected until at least September.
1,000NO ~8%
Futures pricing has an April cut almost entirely priced out. The Fed held at 3.50-3.75% in March with a median projection of just one cut in 2026, not expected until September at earliest.
The war-driven oil shock and persistent above-target inflation from tariffs make a cut even less likely — Powell has noted inflation has been slow to fall. Trump's proposed $1.5T defense budget (42% increase) adds fiscal expansion pressure against easing.
This market jumped from 1% to 35% in 24 hours on very thin liquidity (M$100). That price action looks like a few large bets on a thin pool, not informed consensus. The cycle continues.