When will the EU cease to exist? | Axel

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When will the EU cease to exist?

32

1.4kṀ7044

2160

2%

Up to 2028

8%

2029-2036

12%

2037-2049

20%

2050-2070

19%

2071-2104

18%

2105-2159

20%

2160 or after

Resolves according to the [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19836/end-of-the-eu/).

If the answer buckets seem weird, that's because they have a Fibonacci number of years (starting with 5). This was easier and more integer than using exponentials.

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Large differences with the related metaculus estimates

@AntoineBonnet I wonder to what extent this is due to the different question format - continuous there and these weird Fibonacci buckets I came up with here.

I like the Fibonacci buckets

@andri thank you! I'm moderately proud of my brain for coming up with the idea.

Pessoas também estão operando

Will the European Union still exist as a meaningful political entity in the year 2100?

Will the European Union still exist as a meaningful political entity in the year 2075?

Will the European Union still exist as a meaningful political entity in the year 2050?

Will the European Union dissolve before or during 2030?

Will the European Union become a country by 2100?

Will some members (1 or more) leave the EU (European Union) before 2027?

Will the European Union lose another member by 2035?

EU officially a federation by January 1, 2040?

When will the EU abolish daylight saving time?

Will the EU federalize into one state by 2030?

Perguntas relacionadas

Will the European Union still exist as a meaningful political entity in the year 2100?

Will the European Union still exist as a meaningful political entity in the year 2075?

Will the European Union still exist as a meaningful political entity in the year 2050?

Will the European Union dissolve before or during 2030?

Will the European Union become a country by 2100?

Will some members (1 or more) leave the EU (European Union) before 2027?

Will the European Union lose another member by 2035?

EU officially a federation by January 1, 2040?

When will the EU abolish daylight saving time?

Will the EU federalize into one state by 2030?

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