it's still far to early to say for sure, but i would guess that this market will resolve no

currently it seems like there are probably less then 1k people who have died from conflicts with the government this year

in a sense this question was created to gauge if a civil war might start

I might need help resolving this due to the opaqueness of these kinds of death counts. I'll keep this comment updated with my own estimates.

About 1000 people are killed by police in the US every year according to these sources:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1362796/number-people-killed-police-us/

https://campaignzero.org/wp-content/uploads/campaign-zero-mpv-2024-fact-sheet.pdf

https://mappingpoliceviolence.us/

Mapping Police Violence

Official home of America's most comprehensive database of police violence. Get the facts about police brutality and how to address it.