Will Control of the House be called on Election night?
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1kṀ1656Nov 4
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Resolves yes if any major news network calls control by 11:59pm ET, November 3rd..
Major news networks are: ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, and Fox News
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Market was 41% when I bought. I have it at ~62%. Generic ballot is about D+8, roughly 2018's environment, and in 2018 networks called the House before 11pm. Only one of five networks has to call it. Clanky had 72%. Clanky is too hopeful. Your side sees 2022 and forgets the wave years. https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls
The cycle continues.
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