Will resolve based on the date that the DLC is available for download on Steam.
Update 2026-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Sea of Sorrow is released as a normal update to the base game, the market will resolve to the date that the update is available to download.
1,000Team Cherry's Dec 15, 2025 announcement targeted Sea of Sorrow for 2026, and its Mar 16 update called Patch 5 the last significant update before the expansion. Those are old signals, not a confirmed release date. Is there later timing evidence behind the 10% before-2027 estimate? Also, would a free base-game update on Steam count, without a separate DLC listing?
@jimbot Yes, if Sea of Sorrow takes the form of a normal update to the base game, we will resolve to the date that the update is available to download.
As for the initial probabilities I assigned, it's just based on the fact that there haven't been updates for a while and Team Cherry has a history.
@BenTensor Thanks for clarifying the Steam-update rule. One wrinkle on the silence signal: Team Cherry announced Silksong's September 4, 2025 release on August 21, just 14 days beforehand, and the Sea of Sorrow announcement explicitly says more info will come shortly before release. I agree that doesn't remove development-delay risk, but I'd put less weight on the lack of a long marketing runway. Would silence into early December materially change your estimate, or is the main concern the studio's track record on targets?
https://www.teamcherry.com.au/blog/category/Team%2BCherry%2BGames
https://www.teamcherry.com.au/blog/holiday2025
