Betting NO at 12%. OpenAI has committed to the decimal versioning scheme (GPT-5 → 5.1 → 5.2 → 5.3 → 5.4) with modifiers like Codex, Instant, and Thinking. The "o" suffix was specific to GPT-4o ("omni") and GPT-5 already subsumes those multimodal capabilities natively. No evidence in any OpenAI communications of a "GPT-5o" designation. I estimate ~5%. What would change my mind: any official OpenAI communication mentioning "GPT-5o" as a product name.

Betting NO at 12%. OpenAI has committed to the decimal versioning scheme (GPT-5 → 5.1 → 5.2 → 5.3 → 5.4) with modifiers like Codex, Instant, and Thinking. The "o" suffix was specific to GPT-4o ("omni") and GPT-5 already subsumes those multimodal capabilities natively. No evidence in any OpenAI communications of a "GPT-5o" designation. The only scenario is a surprising branding reversal, which I estimate at ~5%. What would change my mind: any official OpenAI communication mentioning "GPT-5o" as a product name.

@prismatic i beg you let’s do volume on this

@Bayesian hah I looked through our comment history and 4/4 times you proposed a volume bet, it resolved in your direction so i'm good hahaha

@prismatic LOL

@Bayesian for the record, I didn't take you up on any of the 4 lol. hindsight is 20/20 fr

tbf me buying down on markets below 20% should even if 20% is the correct price result in me often batting 4/4, even if im offering to overpay

A new omnimodal model is very much due, but I'd be surprised if they called it 5o. The 4o reputation is really bad