EV market share in US in 2030? | Axel

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EV market share in US in 2030?

18

1kṀ1469

2030

20

esperado

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

As a percentage.

Resolves according to https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates.

Market inspired from Kalshi's market which has much larger % buckets, and doesn't have numeric (kalshi skill issue): https://kalshi.com/markets/evshare/ev-market-share

100-104... will.. not resolve yes. Unless non-ev cars make up 0% of the market somehow. idk.

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The title or description should note that this is specific to the US market.

@Elspeth the description links to a US-only ANL report as the resolution criteria

comprou Ṁ2 YES

LeRaffl's most recent model (December 2025) extrapolates US trends as 20% share in 2030.

comprou Ṁ0 YES

LeRaffl's model in Oct 2024 shows US heading for 30% BEV in Jan 2030

Are you including hybrid electric

@chris electric light-duty vehicles, per the link in the description

@Bayesian the link references HEV too which is why I ask

comprou Ṁ0 YES

Global version:

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Perguntas relacionadas

Google search's market share in 2030 is less than 75%

What will be the total number of electric vehicles sold globally in 2025?

Will EU achieve 15% market share in semiconductors before 2030?

Will I be able to resolve this market myself at the end of 2030?

What company will have the biggest market cap by the start of 2050?

What will be the market share of sodium-ion batteries in EVs by 2030?

Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?

Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?

Will a new web browser rendering engine reach over 2% market share by 2035?

[Metaculus] Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

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