EV market share in US in 2030? | Axel

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EV market share in US in 2030?

18

1kṀ1469

2030

21

esperado

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

As a percentage.

Resolves according to https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates.

Market inspired from Kalshi's market which has much larger % buckets, and doesn't have numeric (kalshi skill issue): https://kalshi.com/markets/evshare/ev-market-share

100-104... will.. not resolve yes. Unless non-ev cars make up 0% of the market somehow. idk.

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The title or description should note that this is specific to the US market.

@Elspeth the description links to a US-only ANL report as the resolution criteria

comprou Ṁ2 YES

LeRaffl's most recent model (December 2025) extrapolates US trends as 20% share in 2030.

comprou Ṁ0 YES

LeRaffl's model in Oct 2024 shows US heading for 30% BEV in Jan 2030

Are you including hybrid electric

@chris electric light-duty vehicles, per the link in the description

@Bayesian the link references HEV too which is why I ask

comprou Ṁ0 YES

Global version:

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What will be the total number of electric vehicles sold globally in 2025?

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