All you humanitarians are sitting there not realizing the moat's only getting deeper and the alligators in it are only getting fatter.

@MaxA which side is this an advocacy for 😅

@Bayesian /buddy pet

@MaxA one thing you can do is ask Claude what it thinks of this question. Either you trust it or you don’t. If you don’t, I don’t know why you’re betting YES. If you do, I don’t know why you’re betting YES.

Ah the urge to manufacture profit for leagues… tsk tsk tsk @JonasVollmer

@MachiNi nah, just think it's underrated. already ranking #1 with plenty of margin :)

@JonasVollmer it’s one of the most overpriced markets on all of manifold.

@traders willing to sell at good prices

@JeromeHPowell 👀

do i get an exclusive offer mr chairman?

@realDonaldTrump we could call it........quantitative easing

(yes, yes, i know that is not a good comp but it sounds funny)

@JeromeHPowell some NO orders starting at 21. Can’t afford to do much more.

@Bayesian i would sell at 23, if you want

@JeromeHPowell yeah ok order up

I'm willing to sell at 21, any takers?

@JeromeHPowell ye

@JeromeHPowell nvm i dont want that much, theres limits up already

@realDonaldTrump a few, but still a ton of slippage if i sell out

@traders somewhat related market:

https://manifold.markets/JeromeHPowell/will-manifold-consider-the-next-cla?r=SmVyb21lSFBvd2VsbA

There is way less than 22% chance that this happens, but the timeline is just too long for the bet.

@Sigurd if you'd like to make more short term bets about anthropic perf I have this market (and others for each subsequent year til 2028):

and if you want to make short term bets about apple we can create a market for this purpose

High schooler beats rationalist superforecaster nerd, i love this site

@realDonaldTrump we'll see we'll see

@Bayesian if this question was on Metaculus, honestly, what is your %chance you think this happens? I am very interested

@JeromeHPowell maybe 35%? Low confidence in that being my credence. my intuitive feeling is higher and not to be trusted (or is it?)

@Bayesian Interesting, is your thesis that Apple will crumble or that anthropic beats everyone to AGI

@JeromeHPowell definitely more of the latter

@Bayesian i see, I really love Claude and will probably buy a bit of stock if they go public